Assessment of Modern Changes in the Navigation Season Timing on the Lena River
Authors
- Maria S. Dregval Russian State Hydrometeorological University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2144-5928
- Ekaterina V. Gaidukova Russian State Hydrometeorological University
- Anna A. Batmazova Russian State Hydrometeorological University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9135-4925
- Igor O. Vinokurov Russian State Hydrometeorological University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4662-4826
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2025.7.4.355+ Keywords
+ Abstract
This article examines changes in the physical navigation period on the Lena River from the beginning of hydrometric observations to the present. The article presents the results of statistical processing of climatic and hydrological time series for the Lena River. An increase in the average annual air temperature is noted, along with rising air temperatures for individual months at the start of the navigation season: April, May, and June. An increase in the duration of navigation along the entire length of the studied river is also revealed, which is predominantly driven by earlier spring ice breakup. The significance of this study is determined by the key role of river transport for the economy and logistics of Yakutia, requiring a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact on the duration of the navigation period. The objectives of the study included identifying and quantitatively analyzing long-term trends in the start, end, and total duration of the navigation period on the Lena River and establishing their relationship with climatic indicators. The calculations are based on a statistical analysis of hydrometric observation series at key stations in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river. The dates of stable ice breakup and freeze-up were analyzed, and the duration of the free-flowing period and its relationship with climatic characteristics were calculated. The analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in navigation periods in all river sections under consideration. The shift in dates was found to average 5 to 10 days over the studied period, with the main contribution coming from earlier ice breakup in spring. The change in autumn ice formation dates was less pronounced. The key conclusion is that the observed climate warming in the Lena River basin is already having a significant impact on the hydrological regime, extending the navigation period, primarily due to a shift in the spring. The results of this study can be used to forecast navigation periods.
+ Author Biographies
Senior Lecturer, Department of Engineering Hydrology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia, SPIN code: 1232-1442 Ph.D. (Technical Sciences), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Engineering Hydrology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia, Assistant, Department of Engineering Hydrology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia, SPIN code: 9810-7934 Senior Lecturer, Department of Engineering Hydrology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia, SPIN code: 3510-7566,
Maria S. Dregval
Ekaterina V. Gaidukova
SPIN-code: 9826-7365
Anna A. Batmazova
Igor O. Vinokurov
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