Spatial Variability and Multidirectional Long-term Changes in Water Discharge of Unregulated Rivers in the Vilyuy River Basin, Eastern Siberia
Authors
- Liudmila S. Lebedeva Melnikov Permafrost Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences , Институт мерзлотоведения им. П.И. Мельникова СО РАН
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2024.6.4.374+ Keywords
+ Abstract
Under the observed climate warming in Eastern Siberia, studying changes in river hydrological regimes has become particularly relevant. The Vilyuy River basin, as one of the largest tributaries of the Lena River, is almost entirely covered by continuous permafrost, which is potentially sensitive to warming. The unregulated tributaries of the Vilyuy remain insufficiently studied. This research evaluates discharge variability in 17 unregulated rivers of the Vilyuy River basin during 1974-2022. Statistical analysis of water discharge time series was applied to identify significant trends, their magnitudes, and change points. Additionally, a correlation analysis established relationships between discharge characteristics and watershed parameters such as elevation, slope, forest cover, temperature, and precipitation. The study revealed that long-term average discharge shows the strongest correlation with watershed elevation and slope, while precipitation influence was significantly weaker. Against a background of general annual discharge stability in most rivers (14 of 17 gauges), pronounced seasonal changes were observed: significant discharge increases in April-May (up to +25.8 %/decade) and winter months (up to +41.2 %/decade), accompanied by decreases in summer (up to −23.2 %/decade). Of particular interest is the Chona River, showing annual discharge reduction (−7.7 %/decade), likely due to anthropogenic groundwater extraction for oil and gas field operations. The transformation of hydrological regimes under climate change demonstrates complex patterns. A seasonal redistribution of discharge was identified, while annual values remain stable, apparently caused by temporal shifts in flood periods and freezing. These findings have important practical implications for predicting river water availability under climate change and for regional economic planning.
+ Author Biographies
Ph. D. (Geography), Senior Researcher, Melnikov Permafrost Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Yakutsk, Russia), SPIN: 6441-4823, https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-7498-9902
Liudmila S. Lebedeva
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